CHINESE CLOUD SEEDING PRACTICES ON THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

TOWARDS NEW FORMS OF HYDROHEGEMONY AND SECURITY DILEMMA?

Marine de Guglielmo Weber – IRSEM
Amrita Jash – Manipal Academy of Higher Education

ABSTRACT

Since 1956, China has been developing cloud seeding techniques, initially for drought mitigation in Jilin Province. Over the decades, Chinese weather modification practices have expanded, culminating in a robust and ambitious state-led weather modification program: the Sky River initiative, launched in 2016 and located on the Tibetan Plateau. The installation of this weather modification infrastructure, set for completion in 2025, aims to increase precipitation over a vast area to mitigate water scarcity and support food security.

While these efforts have the potential to alleviate domestic water shortages, they also raise significant geopolitical concerns. The Tibetan Plateau is the source of major rivers that flow into several neighboring countries; consequently, altering precipitation patterns through cloud seeding could impact water availability downstream, potentially leading to regional tensions.

This situation exemplifies a form of hydro-hegemony, where China’s unilateral control over transboundary water resources may disrupt existing power balances and create security dilemmas among neighboring nations, such as India.

INTRODUCTION

The geopolitics of ground water resources is well-documented and has been the subject of extensive scientific and strategic literature^(x). However, the geopolitics of atmospheric water resources remains much less explored, despite growing interest from numerous states seeking to induce its condensation and precipitation within their territories.

The primary technique employed for this purpose is “cloud seeding”, which involves the dispersion of chemical substances into clouds, and is currently deployed mainly for civilian purposes. While scientific consensus on its efficacy remains elusive, cloud seeding has become indispensable in European anti-hail operations^(x).

In France, for example, a network of hundreds of cloud seeding generators is deployed to mitigate hail risks and safeguard food security^(x).

However, many countries, including the United States, Morocco, Senegal, Benin, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, India, China, Australia, and others, have also integrated cloud seeding as a routine practice to increase rainfall within their borders^(x).

In total, around fifty states conduct weather modification operations globally. Among these, China is the largest investor in the sector, with all provincial governments except Shanghai establishing weather modification offices^(x).

Cloud seeding is also utilized for air pollution mitigation, water resource security, snow generation, and controlling weather conditions for specific public events. After China, the United States, Thailand and India are the leading investors^(x).

Because these techniques involve the chemical modification of the atmosphere and aim to influence the distribution of water resources, they are prone to tensions. Intra-national socio-environmental controversies have already emerged in territories where cloud seeding is routinely practiced.

In this regard, the World Meteorological Organization noted that “legal aspects may assume particular importance when artificial weather modification activities are conducted in border regions”^(x).

In the absence of legal frameworks regulating civilian weather modification practices, border regions where such activities are deployed could experience heightened tensions over shared water resource management.

The concept of “hydro-hegemony” — which traditionally refers to a state’s domination over transboundary water resources — has primarily been applied to surface and groundwater management^(x).

This research paper suggests extending its analytical scope to include atmospheric interventions.

WEATHER MODIFICATION IN CHINA: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION, CLIMATE AND WATER SECURITIZATION

The history of weather modification in China

Since the mid-20th century, the intensity of weather-related hazards has driven the advancement of weather modification initiatives in China^(x).

Their origins can be traced to a research program initiated by Mao Zedong in 1956^(x).

Two years later, the first field experiments were launched to combat drought in Jilin Province^(x).

Planning efforts were accompanied by legal developments, notably the Meteorological Law in 2000, which made the China Meteorological Administration the coordinator of weather modification activities^(x).

Weather modification received formal recognition as an important policy measure in the “Central Document No. 1” of 2012 and 2013^(x).

Weather modernization and climate securitization

China has built the world’s largest comprehensive meteorological observation system^(x).

This modernization supports disaster prevention, water management, and ecological protection.

China is one of the most water-scarce nations in the world, its per capita water supply being only one-fourth of the global average^(x).

Cloud seeding falls into what a UN Water Brief called “unconventional water augmentation opportunities”^(x).

It has become a long-term water resource management tool worldwide^(x).

China uses cloud seeding for agriculture, hydropower, ecological restoration, and pollution control.